@BlueDragon The deciding factor is whether or not the National Guard is called out. Historically, they don't get involved in peaceful free speech demonstrations.
@JeffBerman Ok, if the National Guard is called out, this market resolves YES? Or yes there also has to be a legit riot… again, defined by whom, and how?
Free speech protests can involve confrontation with law enforcement. Refusal to disperse, tear gas, people screaming and running in all directions. From there it will be called a riot by some, especially if the confrontations happen day after day.
As for Trump, he used law enforcement in DC to clear a path so he could do a photo shoot of himself holding a bible at the National Cathedral. He called for the National Guard to be sent to Minneapolis AND Portland AND Seattle based on coverage on Fox News despite very different circumstances on the ground. Meanwhile he insists that the events on Jan 6 were peaceful. I don’t think it follows that the National Guard won’t be called unless it’s a riot.
@BlueDragon Donald Trump will not be the sitting President during the period this market covers and will have no control over the National Guard.
If the Guard are called out maintain order during large-scale events or protests, this market will resolve YES.
@JeffBerman Oh huh excellent point! And an obvious one, thank you.
You’ve made it clear it doesn’t matter for your market so please forgive me for this further clarification. I offer this in the spirit of hypotheticals and historical examples that could affect your resolution.
TLDR I would say “to quell civil unrest” in the title instead of “in response to rioting”.
Colloquially a protest is called a riot when law enforcement can’t control the crowd. Contrary to your assertion, this can and has happened historically at free speech protests that are peaceful until there is a confrontation with law enforcement. The People’s Park protest in Berkeley in 1969 is the epitomus example of the National Guard being called in these cases, to drop tear gas on demonstrators and patrol the street, but far from the only one.
The way this could matter for the resolution is that in cases of civil unrest it won’t always be so obvious that the National Guard was called, as they would be called in as a peacekeeping force after things got messy for other law enforcement. This is how the National Guard showed up in Seattle and Portland in 2020, it was a small deployment that blended with other law enforcement and their arrival was not widely documented in the press even though the protests and associated violence on both sides were heavily covered.
@snazzlePop This is a good question. If reporting is that the Trump election is a factor in the protest/rioting and the National Guard being deployed, this would resolve to YES.