Will Hezbollah's exploding pagers be shown to have explosive material added beyond what is in a normal battery?
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resolved Oct 7
Resolved
YES

I have seen speculation that the explosions could have been caused by lithium batteries alone, or that they may have been implanted with other explosives.

Resolves "no" if the batteries were modified but no unusual material was added

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honestly I wish we had better data on this but there doesn't seem to be another narrative in play anymore

@JesWolfe fwiw from a chemistry perspective the explosions reported/recorded cannot happen from a mere lithium-ion battery, regardless of whether it is electrically compromised or via manipulation of the charge electronics circuitry. I don’t think you should have any trepidation about having resolved this.

(Speaking as an electronics engineer, I actually bet without reading any of the reporting on this because I was confident of the chemistry facts. I’ve exploded much larger li-ion batteries on accident before and this isn’t what it looks like.)

Wikipedia conclusively states that the pagers were filled with PETN. As does the NY Times and the WSJ. I think this one can resolve YES.

@JesWolfe Are you planning to resolve this market?

@Azure can we get a source that’s not anonymous

The AI doesn't know a pager from a cellphone. Funny.