Will an inconsistency in the Calculus of Inductive Constructions be found before 2050?
10
Ṁ8882049
4%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The Calculus of Inductive Constructions is the formal system underlying the Coq proof assistant (see https://coq.github.io/doc/v8.9/refman/language/cic.html).
This will resolve to YES if a proof of a contradiction is published in a peer-reviewed scientific conference or journal on computer proof assistants or a similar area, such as Logic in Computer Science, or if a majority vote of at least 5 researchers in the field of computer proof assistants agree that such a result published elsewhere is correct, before the start of 2050. Otherwise, this will resolve to NO at the start of 2050.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
31% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?
69% chance
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
76% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?
35% chance
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?
41% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2050?
76% chance
Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01?
59% chance
Will Nonlinear exist in 2030?
36% chance
Will Goldbach's conjecture be proved before 2050?
61% chance
Will Goldbach's conjecture be proved before 2040?
42% chance