What score will GPT-5 get on the SAT? | Manifold

What score will GPT-5 get on the SAT?

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21

Ṁ556

2027

1,551

expected

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1W

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ALL

Resolves to the first credible news story about GPT-5's performance on the SAT

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bought Ṁ1 1460-1470 YES

google's latest build of gemini reached ~parity with GPT4 despite probably throwing way more compute at it

bought Ṁ0 1500-1510 YES

there's probably alpha in making bets just to smooth out the curve of numeric markets, with zero information about anything else

bought Ṁ1 1430-1440 YES

my 90% confidence interval is 1430-1500

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Will I be impressed by GPT-5?

-11% 1d17% chance

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GPT-5: >178 LSAT

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Will GPT-5 have a perfect SAT score in either section?

Will GPT-4.5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

GPT-5: >175 LSAT

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GPT-5: 120+ on AMC

Related questions

Will I be impressed by GPT-5?

Will GPT-5 have a perfect SAT score in either section?

Will GPT-5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

Will GPT-4.5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

Will GPT-5 ace exams?

GPT-5: >175 LSAT

GPT-5: >178 LSAT

Will GPT-5 exceed 70% on WebArena?

What will be true about GPT-5?

GPT-5: 120+ on AMC