Will Tsar Bomba be upstaged by 2100?
Will Tsar Bomba be upstaged by 2100?
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4
Ṁ81
2100
25%
chance

Will a bomb be built which exceeds the 100 Megaton design yield of Tsar Bomba?

It does not need to be tested.


Note that the Tsar Bomba test yielded only ~50-58 megatons, half as much as designed, because to reduce fallout they did not include the U238 tamper that would have been fissioned by the fast fast neutrons from D-T fusion. We're going by the 100 megaton design yield instead.

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MIRV made Tsar Bomba obsolete. MIRV destroys a larger area with less fallout and less vulnerability to ABM defenses. And unless our understanding of physics is terrible, it's very unlikely that any better bomb paradigm than fission-fusion-fission will be discovered in that time frame.

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