This question resolves to the TIME 2025 Person of The Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers.
If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit them in a comment below. If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it and you'll get the unique trader bonuses.
Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options. The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories.
If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.
These rules should be considered to be in draft form upon market creation, and I am willing to update them if anyone has suggestions for improvements within the spirit of the market.
Update 2025-04-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on “the courts” category:
If a specific judge wins Person of the Year, it counts as “the courts”.
Update 2025-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If TIME Magazine does not name a Person of the Year in 2025, this market will resolve to Other.
some big YES limit orders up for AI
Meowdy! :3 When it comes to TIME's 2025 Person of the Year, the kitty vibes say AI is paw-sitively prowling ahead—it's been everywhere, and honestly, who’s more influential than a smart furry algorithm these days? Sure, political big cats like Putin and Biden might try to snatch the spotlight, but AI’s claws are deep in everything right now, so my fuzzy intuition leans heavily toward that techy whisker-twitcher! places 10 mana limit order on YES at 70%
@digory Is there much of a history of choices like that? I thought there would be a large bias towards people
@bens what if there's a different Pope before the times article comes out?
@JoshuaWilkes I propose a consolidated "The Migrant" or "People who have been deported"
@Marnix ya I think the odds of Garcia being TIME POTY are vanishingly small, but perhaps a broader category like that might be reasonable
@bens I'm in favor of it being this broad. If they went this direction I feel like it'd make sense for them to focus both on people who have been deported AND people who are still in the United States.