Pew Research surveys validated voters after national elections and askes them about their demographics and vote. Here are the results after the 2022 midterms:

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From 2020 to 2022, the largest shift was 12 points. From 2018 to 2020, the largest shift was 25 points. From 2016 to 2018, the largest shift was 19 points.

If the largest shift from 2022 to 2024, is 20 points or more, this market resolves Yes. If the largest shift is 19 points or fewer, it resolves No.