Will Trump be elected President in 2024 / Will Trump serve time?
44
αΉ3199Jan 1
1D
1W
1M
ALL
7%
Trump wins the 2024 Election and serves time before death
40%
Trump wins the 2024 Election and never serves time before death
21%
Trump does not win the 2024 Election and serves time before death
32%
Trump does not win the 2024 Election and never serves time before death
Live updating visualization of conditional odds:
How correlated are these events? Let's find out.
What counts?
Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence.
Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts.
Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count.
It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment.
Winning the election is defined by reliable media sources reporting.
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I have to do math now to see if arbitrage is possible past the fees :/
14 percent different between this and the conditional market you mentioned. So room for profit!
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