Background The U.S. maintains a military presence in the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) as part of NATO's Enhanced Forward Presence. Recent reports suggest potential U.S. troop withdrawals from the region, particularly in the context of possible negotiations between the U.S. and Russia. Current discussions indicate a potential 20% reduction (approximately 20,000 troops) in overall U.S. military presence in Europe.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if by December 31, 2025, the U.S. has completely withdrawn its permanent and rotational military forces from Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. It will resolve NO if any U.S. troops remain stationed in or are conducting rotational deployments in any of these three Baltic states by this date.

A partial withdrawal that leaves any U.S. military presence in the Baltic states will resolve as NO. The presence of military advisors, trainers, or support staff counts as a continued troop presence.

Considerations

• Any withdrawal would likely be part of broader strategic shifts in U.S. European policy

• European allies' response and potential increases in their own defense capabilities could affect U.S. decisions

• The ongoing situation in Ukraine and U.S.-Russia relations may significantly impact this outcome