This market is meant to track the weights of opinions of Manifold users, not the probability of an outcome.
This market resolves to Market% value somewhere between elections and the end of the year. You decide how much to buy depending on your opinion strength and how worth it is to be represented on Manifold.
Bet Yes if you prefer Biden as a president.
Bet No if you prefer Trump as a president.
You may also bet between elections and the resolution to represent the sentiment "society has made a mistake/ a right choice".
Most of my markets are about russian threat, and in my opinion Trump is extremely underestimating the risks, thinking he could deter putin from expansion.
I do not know whether he would and why, I think he would not be able to.
Why oppose putin? Because putin wants to reestablish ussr, and that includes baltic states. If ukraine gives up, estonia will be one of the next targets, which is a direct conflict with nato. I suppose the whole europe benefits from keeping the war within the the borders of ukraine.
14% of a rus-nato war is a serious possibility needed to be taken into account.