What MLB team will finish the 2025 regular season with the highest positive run differential?
9
Ṁ1493
resolved Oct 1
100%99.0%
Milwaukee Brewers (+173 as of 9/26/2025)
0.1%
Chicago Cubs (+138 as of 9/26/2025)
0.1%
New York Mets (+50 as of 9/26/2025)
0.1%
New York Yankees (+158 as of 9/26/2025)
0.1%
Detroit Tigers (+67 as of 9/26/2025)
0.1%
San Diego Padres (+66 as of 9/26/2025)
0.1%
Two or more teams tie
0.1%
Los Angeles Dodgers (+134 as of 9/26/2025)
0.1%
Boston Red Sox (+110 as of 9/26/2025)
0.1%Other

Reference Link: https://www.mlb.com/standings/

For anyone who does not follow baseball, MLB tracks the total number of runs scored minus the total number of runs allowed as the Run Differential team stat, which also provides a measure known as Pythagorean W/L, where Run Differential is used to calculate expected wins and losses based on runs scored vs runs allowed.

Thus far I've only used division leaders with high run differentials leading into the final week of April. The Dodgers are only 8 runs above zero, and while I'm not saying the AL West sucks, they, uh, they don't have a collective run differential as a division to write home about.

Feel free to add other teams if you like; I will select only the team at the very top or, in the event of a tie the "two or more teams" option I've added in the wins markets. Cheers!

  • Update 2025-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the word 'positive' has been added to the market question, specifying the resolution criteria:

    • The winning team must have a positive run differential (greater than zero).

    • A team with a negative run differential will not be considered the winner, even if its run differential is technically the 'highest' overall (e.g., if all teams were to finish with negative run differentials). This is to prevent 'gotcha' resolutions.

#️ Sports
#Baseball
#MLB
Get Ṁ1,000 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ134
2Ṁ59
3Ṁ26
4Ṁ20
5Ṁ4
10 Comments
Sort by:

For the record, if the outcomes of today’s games are as follows:

Yankees win by 4+

Brewers lose by 4+

This market resolves for the Yankees whether I like it or not.. haha

Today, Milwaukee and the Yankees are separated by 7 runs (+170 vs +163).

I honestly didn’t anticipate it being this close today, but that’s baseball.

it’s been a hell of a season, and I appreciate yall stopping in.

From what I've seen, following the updates for Game # 160, the Yankees are within 15 runs of the Brewers (+158 v +173).

The likelihood is slim, but two disastrous games against a hungry Reds team vying for a playoff spot may swing this. The Yankees' final two games are against Baltimore.

Update 9/4: totals for all teams through yesterday’s games now on the board.

Considered adding Phillies and Rangers, but neither is above +100. Might do a final add in a couple weeks when the last two series are all that remains for the season.

Update 8/15: Added the Brewers and Red Sox today. This one I feel is going to have a crazy finish. I don't know who had the Brew Crew going ham in the dog days on their bingo card, but if you did, congratulations, I guess?

Updated the teams' current run differential as of 5/31 and added the Dodgers. I did not realize I didn't already have the Dodgers in this market, which now for my bonehead ass explains why "other" had such a high score this month. Carry on, carry on.

Clarification 5/11/2025: Added the word “positive” to the original question. Sorry, no “gotcha” resolutions will be had for teams that give up football scores at the end of this season.

Look, I know the Rockies are on track to best (or worst?) last season’s White Sox. But instead of profiting from it, we should do what we do to every team that performs that poorly: point and laugh, and then wait for the next epitome of suck.

Following the end of April, here are the MLB teams leading in run differential:

Mets +54

Yankees +52

Cubs +47

Tigers +40

@LBeesley I will try to keep the options on this market updated monthly. Doubt I can remember to do it weekly

Well goodness. Mets just lumbered through a +14 in a single day.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/boxscore/_/gameId/401695331

Related questions