Setting up my annual player performance market. Last year this hitter-specific market was clearing the 1.000 OPS threshold. To track more closely with the pitcher market, I have pivoted to the bWAR metric that is available on the baseball-reference website.
Due to the higher skewed individual threshold for hitters, I’ve set the bar at 7.0 bWAR. There were just too many above 6.0 to warrant adding them all here, but I’ve added the provision that anyone can add a player to this market. My ask is simply that if you do, please only add the name of the player - teams are always subject to change, and all other 2024 bWAR totals were below 7.0.
This market does NOT round up. A player’s total bWAR at the conclusion of games played for his team must be 7.0 or higher to resolve YES.
Resolves NO for 6.9 and below.
The only way this market will resolve N/A is if 0 MLB games are played for the 2025 season. If even one game is played, and the players strike or the league is dissolved, all players will resolve NO.
I also debated whether or not to close individual players early if they reach 7.0 prior to season's end, but I found this could result in an incorrect resolution if the player falls below the threshold and finishes below the threshold after reaching it. While uncommon, it is possible. All players will be resolved following the end of the regular season.
Update 2025-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Combined WAR Calculation:
For two-way players (such as Ohtani), the final season bWAR is determined by summing their hitting and pitching WAR, following the methodology shown in Baseball-Reference’s WAR Leaders - All category.
Update 2025-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
Two-way Players in Separate Markets: Two-way players (like Ohtani) can be added to both the hitter and pitching markets.
Market-Specific WAR Components: When a two-way player is added to both markets, the WAR used in each resolution is the metric relevant to that market. For example, if a player posts 4.0 bWAR from hitting and 3.0 bWAR from pitching, he would resolve YES in the hitter market (using his hitting WAR plus pitching WAR to meet the combined threshold) and in the pitching market (using his pitching metric as evaluated for that market).
No Double-Counting Assumption: The player’s dual performance does not mean he must be treated as two separate players; rather, each market will evaluate his performance according to its own criteria.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ415 | |
| 2 | Ṁ405 | |
| 3 | Ṁ274 | |
| 4 | Ṁ128 | |
| 5 | Ṁ45 |
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodriju01.shtml
Julio is also close, as he needs only 0.2 war. I guess that might be a bit difficult to get in the last 4 games, but this is second half Julio we are talking about.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/raleica01.shtml
Cal is currently at 7.2bWAR. I guess losing 0.3 war in the remaining 4 games is possible, but it seems pretty unlikely
Update 9/2:
- Revised all players to reflect bWAR through games played on September 2 (games in progress)
- Judge is back over 7 and is now the only one
- Bobby Witt Jr and Pete Crow Armstrong are at 6 or above
- Corey Seager underwent surgery on Thursday last week and may have finished his season at 5.9. As I've mentioned in the pitcher WAR market, there's a small but nonzero chance the overall league performance could plummet far enough to push Seager's bWAR over 7.0, so I cannot resolve until season's end.
All-Star Break update notes:
- Added Pete Crow Armstrong as the highest-bWAR player not already on the market.
- Ohtani's bWAR total includes new pitching stats since May 31
- Aaron Judge has already reached 7.0 bWAR, yes. But I cannot resolve until the end of the season because there is no guarantee he will stay above this total through the remainder of the season, even if his performance is currently as close to a guarantee as you can get from a MLB hitter.
I've updated players' bWAR performance to reflect how they've done through the first month-ish of the season, and I've added the top two bWAR players not already on the market in Fernando Tatis Jr and Pete Alonso.
Happy to add on request if you are unable to; I believe I reserved everyone the opportunity to add as I've seen others in the team wins markets I have. Let me know!
@Tripping yes, since that appears to be how b-ref measured his 2021-2023 seasons. When you review the bWAR leaders for those seasons, they have “WAR leaders - All” category where Ohtani’s total is the sum of his hitting and pitching WAR.