Will Real Estate Prices in the US increase by at least 25% by the end of 2027?
36
Ṁ4369
2028
66%
chance

Prediction #7 in my "Great Logging Off" market

Meta-market:
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/how-many-of-my-predictions-in-marke-089c96830000?groupId=KgzUh68PEIltJSzCnmF2

Blog post:
https://www.fortressofdoors.com/ai-markets-for-lemons-and-the-great-logging-off

This resolves YES, if, by the end of 2027, this FRED graph shows a value that is 25% higher (1.25x) than it was in Q3 2022 ($542,900), or $678,625.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASPUS

For context, 5 years ago, Q3 of 2017, the value was $373,200. We've seen a 1.45X growth since then.

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opened a Ṁ5,000 YES at 66% order

My reasoning: the FED will likely drop interest rates under political pressure and Congress will keep on borrowing money to stimulate the economy. We'll once again get the doubly whammy of inflation plus low interest rates driving demand plus failure to deal with zoning regulations.

Seems like that jump over the last 4 years is a low interest rate phenomenon... though my preferred reasoning for betting this down would be 'Lars will be astoundingly successful in creating popular support for a land value tax in the coming years'

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