By 2050, will humanity harness and utilize energy on a scale approaching Type I on the Kardashev scale?
By 2050, will humanity harness and utilize energy on a scale approaching Type I on the Kardashev scale?
➕
Plus
16
Ṁ1301
2051
10%
chance
Same update as the one for EOY 2060
Mar 15

YES Resolution:

  • This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 2050, humanity has reached Type I status on the Kardashev scale, signifying the ability to use and store all of the energy available on planet Earth.

  • Reaching the Engery combustion of 5 * 10^20 Wh per year (current approximation of the amount of energy to be Type I civilization)


NO Resolution:

  • If by the end of 2050, there is no consensus or evidence that humanity has achieved Type I status on the Kardashev scale, the market will resolve to NO.

Verification:

  • The resolution will be based on widespread scientific consensus or announcements from leading global energy research institutions, as reported in reputable scientific publications or global news outlets.

Another Question with the deadline of EOY 2060:

#️ Technology
#World
#Science
#Futurism
#Energy
#Kardashev scale
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2 Comments
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Rana GboughtṀ25NO
1y

Any supporting evidence we are on that path? This is something that should be obvious decades in advance, but I don't see any signs.

1y

@RanaG You're right; transitioning to a Type I civilization is a monumental task that would indeed show signs well in advance.
While we haven't seen definitive evidence yet, advancements in renewable energy, global connectivity, and the beginning of space exploration and utilization could be early indicators. If scientific papers accepted by the majority provide evidence of reaching Type I, or if human activities in space start playing a significant role in our economy, those would be strong signals towards such a transition.

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