Will >300k people know Esperanto fluently by the end of 2040?
Mini
9
Ṁ1582041
29%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves based on the credible report on the number of fluent speakers, my best judgment, and the discussion in the comments.
I will not participate in betting on this market.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will Esperanto be dethroned as the most widely spoken conlang by 2030?
27% chance
Will I be fluent in 3 languages by 2030
20% chance
Will I learn a substantial amount of Spanish by the end of 2025?
48% chance
Will duolingo still be the most popular language learning app at the end of 2026?
88% chance
Will Tetra be able to speak any non-English major language by the end of 2025?
31% chance
What fraction of World Esperanto Congresses will be held on each continent in the next decade?
Will English be the first language to pass 2 billion speakers worldwide?
82% chance
Will there be an LLM which can do fluent conlang translations by EOY 2024?
72% chance
By 2040, will there be audio translation tech that's a full substitute for knowing a foreign language?
90% chance
Will a Large Language Model save a human life through medical advice by the end of 2025?
90% chance