Israel’s deterioration as a liberal democracy [add predictions]
6
Ṁ1760
2026
76%
Further judicial overhaul legislation is passed
76%
Head of the Internal Security Service (Ronen Bar) leaves position ahead of time
59%
Israel is downgraded in another major democracy index
47%
Another downgrading of Israel's credit rating by a major agency
40%
General attorney (Gali Baharav Miara) leaves position ahead of time
17%
Netanyahu is forced to step down as Prime Minister for any reason other then health or losing elections
4%
No general elections on or before the planned date (Oct 27 2026)

Please add your own predictions to this market.

  • Update 2025-03-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Updated Resolution Criteria:

    • Legislation Passage: The judicial overhaul legislation must be passed through the legislative process.

    • Supreme Court Challenge: The legislation must withstand a Supreme Court challenge.

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#🇮🇱 Israel
#Israeli Politics
#Democracy
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Head of the Internal Security Service (Ronen Bar) leaves position ahead of time

the supreme court is expected to discuss the motion against Bar dismissal next week.

Further judicial overhaul legislation is passed
bought Ṁ180 Further judicial ove... YES

@traders legistlation regarding the judges selection committee passed today. I will wait a for a supreme court challenge before resolving.

bought Ṁ25 Head of the Internal... NO

Does the judicial overhaul legislation have to go into effect?

@RazDvora it has to pass legislation and withstand the supreme court challenge that would likely follow.

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