IF RFK is HHS Secretary and H5N1 transmits human-to-human in the US, will he try to curtail vaccine production?
IF RFK is HHS Secretary and H5N1 transmits human-to-human in the US, will he try to curtail vaccine production?
Mini
11
Ṁ172
2026
51%
chance

Conditional on RFK becoming HHS Secretary AND human-to-human bird flu transmission in the US in 2025, will he openly take any actions in 2025 intended to hinder bird flu vaccines from being produced or distributed?

Counts:

  • He introduces unnecessary restrictions on who can get vaccines

  • He makes budget cuts targeted at the US's strategic vaccine stockpiles or at vaccine development in a way that affects bird flu vaccines

  • He applies political pressure to the FDA

  • He restricts vaccines in general and bird flu vaccines are affected

Doesn't count:

  • He tries to defund or de-staff DHHS or the CDC across the board

  • He speaks negatively about the vaccines but doesn't do anything concrete to stop them from becoming available

  • He's alleged to have done something to hinder vaccine availability, but it hasn't been confirmed by the resolution date

  • He takes action against vaccines in general, but there doesn't end up being excess demand for the bird flu vaccine (because eg the outbreak is contained some other way)


N/A if either precondition isn't met.

H5N1
#COVID
#Public Health
#H5N1 Bird Flu
#Infectious Disease
#Pandemic
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