H5N1

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Will there be a "large-scale bird flu outbreak" (100+ human confirmed H5N1 cases) in the US by the end of 2025?9% chance

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How many H5N1 human cases will there be in the USA by end of 2025, according to CDC?

84%

Under 101 cases

12%

101 - 1000 cases

1.1%

1001 - 10,000 cases

0.7%

10,001 - 100,000 cases

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First confirmed human-to-human H5N1 transmission by May 1st 2025NO

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Will there be documented human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (bird flu) before 2026?6% chance

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Will there be more than 1,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 bird flu in the US by the end of 2025?5% chance

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Will there be 10k or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025?4% chance

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Raw milk sales banned in additional US states due to H5N1 before February 1, 2025NO

Mini

Will 1000 herds of livestock be infected by H5N1 by the end of March 2025?YES

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What will be the CDC’s official mortality rate of H5N1 on January 1st, 2026?

15%

>30%

16%

15-30%

30%

5-15%

74%

<5%

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Will the US approve an H5N1 vaccine for any group of people before a pandemic starts?90% chance

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IF RFK is HHS Secretary and H5N1 transmits human-to-human in the US, will he try to curtail vaccine production?51% chance

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Will an H5N1 mRNA vaccine be developed and enter "late stage" human trials (or wider release) by July 2025?NO