MANIFOLD
Browse
US Election
News
About
App
Sign up
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sign in
Dark
Light
(auto)
OpenAI
Deepseek
Israel Ceasefire
TikTok Ban
LA Fire
Oscars 2025
H5N1
Trump
Cabinet
Nintendo Switch 2
Trudeau Resigns
Hard Forkcasts 2025
Korea
Biden
House Speaker
Sora
Bitcoin
2028 Election
AGI Timelines
Taylor Swift
Elon/Tesla
Sama Drama
AI Math
Twitter
ACX 2024
One Piece
Music AI Race
Hard Forkasts 2024
AI 2025
2028 Election
Joshua
Manifold Politics
Premium
Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)
29%
Other
Yes
No
Open options
23%
JD Vance (Vice President)
Yes
No
Open options
7%
Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)
Yes
No
Open options
7%
Gavin Newsom (California Governor)
Yes
No
Open options
See 18 more answers
155
Ṁ22k
4
2
PREDYX
Premium
2028 US Presidential Election winner?
23%
JD Vance
Yes
No
Open options
20%
Other
Yes
No
Open options
9%
Gavin Newsom
Yes
No
Open options
5%
Josh Shapiro
Yes
No
Open options
See 37 more answers
#
️ Politics
#
🇺🇸 US Politics
#
Trump
606
Ṁ160k
135
20
Dylan Slagh
Plus
Who will win the 2028 United States presidential election?
25%
Other
Yes
No
Open options
24%
JD Vance
Yes
No
Open options
9%
Gavin Newsom
Yes
No
Open options
5%
Josh Shapiro
Yes
No
Open options
See 57 more answers
450
Ṁ20k
33
14
Dylan Slagh
Plus
Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?
16%
Gavin Newsom
Yes
No
Open options
15%
Other
Yes
No
Open options
11%
Josh Shapiro
Yes
No
Open options
8%
Pete Buttigieg
Yes
No
Open options
See 77 more answers
1442
Ṁ29k
217
40
Dylan Slagh
Plus
Who will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
44%
JD Vance
Yes
No
Open options
18%
Other
Yes
No
Open options
8%
Donald Trump Jr
Yes
No
Open options
5%
Donald Trump, Sr
Yes
No
Open options
See 33 more answers
542
Ṁ20k
24
8
PREDYX
Premium
2028 Democratic nominee?
32%
Other
Yes
No
Open options
14%
Gavin Newsom
Yes
No
Open options
11%
Josh Shapiro
Yes
No
Open options
7%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Yes
No
Open options
See 8 more answers
119
Ṁ22k
6
3
PREDYX
Premium
2028 Republican nominee?
41%
JD Vance
Yes
No
Open options
27%
Other
Yes
No
Open options
6%
Donald Trump Jr
Yes
No
Open options
5%
Donald Trump Sr.
Yes
No
Open options
See 8 more answers
265
Ṁ42k
17
4
skibidist
Mini
2028 Democratic candidate is "Trump of the Dems"?
14%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
53
Ṁ273
34
2
Scott Alexander
Plus
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
65%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
2275
Ṁ5.5k
328
62
Browse
Election
News
About
Sign in