It has to be published and available for every average user in the US. It has to feature at least some kind of 3D or 360° interface. Simply adding the current app with the existing UI would not lead to a resolution of YES for this question.
If there is no such app available until January 1st, 2030, 0:00 PST, this question will resolve as NO. The question will immediately resolve as YES if Manifold publishes an app. A demolition of the app will not affect the resolution of this question.
Any name changes won't effect the outcome of this question.
Background:
If you have any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I will bet in this market.
@ashly_webb there nearly are six years between now and EOY2029, longer than Manifold has beeen existing. But @Bayesian has a 1k limit order on 18% for doubters.
@Bayesian Keeping it up for a week, if u see this afterwards lmk and i might put another one up depending on how it goes
@Lion I try not to make subjective markets. Idk, I enjoy them less, I guess. Also, it’ll take a month or so before my opinion really solidifies.
@Lion i love it! it doesn’t do much, and leaves a face “ring” mark when you wear it for longer than 30mins (I’m gonna try to not crank it on so tightly). Now, take this with a grain of salt, as I’ve been waiting for a decade to strap a computer to my face.
My main cons are as follows:
It needs a lot more people to develop on it. It feels like I’m using a new product on Day 1 and does “do” much. I owned a Pebble 1 and the Snapticples and both felt similar. I’m hoping more people develop on it (specifically: YouTube, Netflix, Spotify and some of the other software giants).
Spatial photos are really cool and make you feel like you’re in the place, more so than most other experiences I’ve tried.
Pass-through is never seamless. The frame rate and image quality aren’t quite high enough to trick your brain to thinking they’re fully real. Your phone looks blurry and text in the real world is hard to read (you likely won’t be reading recipes or textbooks with this thing on). Also, bc the frame rate is more “walking speed” I would NOT use VP while driving.
I do think this product is not really clear what product it’s trying to replace. For a lot of instances, it feels almost like it wants to replace your computer, but isn’t quite powerful enough. Typing is sorta annoying, you can either select letters by eye-focus and hand gesture, or you can type on an AR keyboard in front of your face, but both are inferior to a real keyboard. Right now, you’re doing a bunch of window management, which is kinda cool (you can have a movie + texting + a game all around you). If it were more powerful and running something closer to MacOS (VisionOS feels more iPad OS / TV OS / iOS right now) this could be a pretty compelling product - maybe this will be the VP 3.0.
I’ve really only used it for like an hour, but I’m excited to try out more AR features in the future, that’s really my main upside.
Should I buy a vision pro?
Yes, if and only if:
You don’t mind forking over $4k to Apple for an unclear ROI
You really want to strap a computer to your face.
You like being a super early adopter of new hardware products.
@mattyb Thanks, I'm currentyl drawn pretty much towards No anyways. I'm just excited about new tech.
My personal reasons are:
I would have to fly to the US to get it (which would actually be a pro).
I don't use any Apple products, I'm tied to Windows (Android and Garmin).
The biggest feauture for me would be using it for secondary/third/fourth/fifth displays which doesn't work with Windows (at least as far as I know).
Most apps will probably be geoblocked anyways. (There are ways around it, but that doesn't always work and has a big latency.)
I'd love to use it in trains etc., but there are to many security problems on most of my rides.
Have you tried the headstrap instead? It should be much more comfortable for longer sessions according to Marques Brownlee.
@Lion yea, i’m going to try the headstrap today. it also comes with two different face cushions. I’m going to try both of them. It’s not uncomfortable, but could be comfier
@Lion i still like it, but have been fairly busy and haven’t been using it as much recently. I’m still waiting for more developers to build AR things on it, but the VR use cases are pretty cool
@mattyb One month has passed, and even my Zwift avatar wore an Apple Vision Pro fake, so it's mainstream now 😉 . How's it going? Are you using it more regularly now? How are the first externally developed apps?
@Lion I haven’t been using it much recently, but I’ve been traveling quite a bit. I blame this on my not having the case for it yet. Though it’ll be a sizable piece of my luggage, once packed.
That being said, it hasn’t integrated fully into any of my workflows. I will say, if I could use Manifold on my laptop (and thus sync to my VP), I’d check my phone less 😊
@mattyb Okay, here we are, and half a year has passed, and you still can't log in on a desktop 😏. But to the main point: Do you use the VP on a daily or weekly basis, or is it just sitting there collecting dust? How has the development of useful apps gone? Do you use it on airplanes or trains? How is your long term experience? Anything that has worn off?
@Lion replying from my bot (laptop) bc I'm tired of having to do everything on mobile.
I pierced my eyebrow this summer, so I didn't wear my VP for a bit while that healed. Honestly, I'm still struggling to find a good use case for it. I don't wear it out in public much, I'd feel like an absolute fool wearing it on MUNI (the SF public transit I take ~5/week), and when I've flown, I've traveled on the lighter side, and the VP is large and clunky.
I still use it ~weekly, and really do like watching things in it, and occasionally using it with my laptop as a second screen but it really hasn't found a good use case which isn't served by other tech that I own.
I did get on the Vision OS 2 Beta pretty quickly and it's soooo much better and more useable, but I never really had issues with the OS. Idk, it's still a cool toy in search of a purpose IMHO. If they came out with a VP 2, I wouldn't buy it (fwiw, I did get the iPhone 15 this year, upgrading my i14 - I remain an Apple fan boy). But at the same time, I'm not going to return my VP 1, I do like it.