After a six-month streak of contraction that pointed towards a manufacturing recession, the US ISM New Orders Index - a key forward-looking indicator for the economy - surprisingly surged back into expansion territory (51.4) in August.

This has created a crucial economic inflection point. Was August's strength the beginning of a genuine "soft landing" recovery, or was it a "false dawn" before a continued slowdown?

This market will resolve based on the next data point for September. A reading below 50 indicates a return to contraction.

Recent Data:

May 47.6 > June 46.4 > July 2025 47.1 > August 51.4

A YES vote supports the "false dawn" theory, suggesting the economic rebound has failed and recession fears will return.

A NO vote supports the recovery narrative, suggesting the US economy is resilient and a "soft landing" is likely.

Resolution Criteria:

This market will resolve to YES if the "New Orders Index" sub-component of the official ISM Manufacturing Report On Business® for September 2025 is reported as a value less than 50.0.

A value of 50.0 or greater will cause the market to resolve to NO.

The official report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), scheduled for release on or around October 1, 2025, will be the sole source of truth.