Will clued-in people be talking about ASI-Arch as a significant inflection point in July 2026?
11
Ṁ11352026
26%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.18074
Resolves based on whether organic and serious discussion to this effect can be shown happening in July 2026, from people I can be persuaded are clued in.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will we get ASI before 2036?
51% chance
Will we get ASI before 2029?
13% chance
Will we get ASI before 2027?
4% chance
Will we get ASI before 2031?
31% chance
Will we get ASI before 2028?
6% chance
Will there be a high profile power struggle at Inflection AI before 2026?
21% chance
Will we get ASI before 2033?
44% chance
Will we get ASI before 2032?
39% chance
Will Anthropic announce one of their AI systems is ASL-3 before the end of 2025?
99% chance
Will Anthropic announce one of their AI systems is ASL-4 or higher before the end of 2025?
7% chance