Update 2025-03-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:
The market will resolve by a poll after the next public meltdown by Elon Musk.
A qualifying meltdown must be public and captured on camera or recorded in media (excluding Twitter).
This determination will be based on the perception of it being a very public, unhinged meltdown.
Update 2025-03-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification to the 'Other' Option:
The Other option is defined as any point in time not covered by the other specific options.
Update 2025-03-23 (PST): - Meltdown Timing: The qualifying meltdown for 'He already did' must have occurred prior to market creation. (AI summary of creator comment)
would his Dave Chappelle meltdown have counted as a YES for this market?
@KJW_01294 the source for this is only this CNBC interview: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/11/07/elon-didnt-just-break-twitter-twitter-broke-elon-musk-says-breaking-twitter-author-ben-mezrich.html
Mezrich just said that Musk was "upset" and "shocked", and even this is probably exaggerated because he wants to sell his book.
@makeworld Agree this needs clarity. I was thinking it meant the meltdown happened some time before the market creation (March 19).
@CryptoNeoLiberalist when I saw this I wondered if I had to resolve this market already. But it's actually pretty consistent with how he usually acts, he's trying to perform what he thinks a genius man would do.
@MalachiteEagle I mean, sure, but at the same time, I doubt that the 'old Elon' was ever a good person to begin with. If anything, the whole Elon debacle should have taught us that talk is cheap. His megalomania and personality cult tendencies were always there...
@AntonKurkin I'm ok with people channeling megalomania into advancing technology to benefit mankind
@MalachiteEagle Well, I suppose in his mind—and in the minds of his fanbase—everything he does still benefits mankind. His fight against public transport that relied on inherently unrealistic ideas (tunnels, vactrains). He cut corners and pushes back against safety and regulations across all his companies, whether in product design, manufacturing, or privacy. He built Tesla stock into a pyramid scheme through blatant lies and relentless self-promotion.
Sure, he’s contributed to promoting space research and electric cars. But the damage he has done while trying to be a "techno-messiah" certainly didn’t start with Twitter and his conservative turn.
@AntonKurkin I think you're using a reductive analysis where people are divided into two groups, those who are "pro Elon" and those who are "anti Elon". Reality is nuanced and doesn't align with these ideological positions. Elon musk is/was a very successful entrepreneur who has pushed the envelope on the real world deployment of advanced technologies. He has also cooked his brain with psychedelics and an uncontrolled twitter addiction, and is now fixated on disinformation and conspiracy theories.
@AntonKurkin I understand what you're saying vs his history as an entrepreneur, but the problem is that his successes up until now are real. That may be inconvenient to whatever ideological position you've embraced, but it's good to try and be objective and nuanced.
@AntonKurkin Elon musk, for instance, has lost objectivity and nuance. I took one look at his Twitter yesterday and fuck me what a disaster
@AntonKurkin I think you've nailed it, there are too many fanboys laundering his reputation for him — which is preventing people from seeing the consistently terrible person he has always been
though I will admit that the episode with the submarine in thailand made me clock that he wasn't all right upstairs; and that was a while back now
now that I think of it the one thing that's remained invariant since then is his unusual and somewhat arbitary fixation with pedophila
wonder what that's all about
come to think of it, that's somewhat of a pattern as well, because the guy he accused was from the UK. That sounds somewhat similar to his fixation with the child grooming gang story in the UK, where he was going after Kier Starmer for being soft on sex offenders. Maybe he he's had some subconscious association thing going on for a while and the twitter algorithm's been pumping him with it
@MalachiteEagle I never said that everything he did was somehow bad and evil. I'm really more of a moral relativist anyway. I said that he is and always was a narcissist and was always full of shit. did he use it to support and promote something I'm interested in? Sure and I still hope that say SpaceX Starship will be succesful. Was he in his mind trying to help humanity and it did sometimes sounded like that? Yes, and the whole venture into technopositivism was fun. Was there any time in the past before drugs or whatever, where good "old Elon" was caring about anything but himself and his image? I seriously doubt that
and the ridiculous story about the submarine - to me it always illustrated just that
@MalachiteEagle Also, regarding the technologies he promoted: I think a small portion of what he actually promoted was indeed good and even revolutionary for their respective industries. Another part was exaggerated. Yet another portion was nowhere near ready for production, and by the time it was, his companies had several competitors developing similar technologies within the same timeframe.
A significant portion of his statements, however, had no basis in reality and seemed to be made purely to inflate the value of his companies. If you care to look, this pattern of behavior can be traced back to the very beginning. His strategy has always been—and still is even in DOGE—primarily about hyping "his achievements", whether real or not. In my view, the harm has long since outweighed the positives.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why should I trade?
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes. What are sweepstakes markets?
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why should I trade?
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.