What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold Markets until 2025-12-31?
Plus
8
แน16k2026
0.8%
chance
1D
1W
1M
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This market resolves NO on 2025-12-31, New Year's Eve of the current year.
This exists as a baseline for other yearly predictions, especially ones that effectively cannot happen - this market should trade at the same value as whether (e.g.) Henry Kissinger will rise from the grave in 2025.
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@FergusArgyll I think the lowest we can trade to is 1% unless anybody with YES shares sells off beyond 1%.
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