Before 2026, will you be able to buy ads in a mainstream AI assistant?
Before 2026, will you be able to buy ads in a mainstream AI assistant?
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Long form: Will there be a documented case where a company or person was able to influence AI assistant output by directly paying the provider?
The ad can be clearly marked as an ad, but it can't be something like a normal banner ad on the side. Basically, it needs to feel like the AI assistant's output.
Cases of training data injection don't count.
Let me know if you have any questions!
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Damn, yeah that's an interesting question. Something like having product placements in the responses. Feels like this might not be in the interest of "serious" providers, but maybe there'll be a mainstream fun version that offers it to make some profit. Only one year left, so I'm still short here.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
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