By 2063, will the Republic of China annex any territory in the mainland?
By 2063, will the Republic of China annex any territory in the mainland?
โž•
Plus
21
แน€1508
2064
19%
chance

This market solves to YES if the state called Republic of China, based in the island of Taiwan, has control of territory in mainland China. I'll rely on the facts on the ground. The land has to be in peace for this market to resolve to YES. If by market close they have disputed control or are in the process of taking control, this market resolves to NO.

This market resolves to NO preemptively if the state of the Republic of China ceases to exist for 1 year. I'll rely in the mainstream media outlets.

#World
#๏ธ Wars
#๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China
#China Taiwan potential conflict
#๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ Taiwan
Get แน€1,000 play money
11 Comments
18 Holders
32 Trades


Sort by:
2y

As much as mainland China might collapse, it could only be a German kind of unification. It would no longer be called ROC and very likely not based in Taipei.

2y

Historic China technically includes extensions past its current borders, so this is plausible

2y

it'd be sort of amusing if russia gets some of its teritory annexed

2y

Can you define 'Mainland' please?

2y

@JoshuaWilkes it's the territory in continental Asia thar today is both de juris e de facto controlled by the government from Beijing

predicts YES 2y

@MP what if Xinjiang becomes a shithole owned by warlord groups and sporadic "annexations" of the wasteland there

2y

@MarkIngraham if the republic of China has control on Xinjiang, this market would solve to YES. If another state like Kazakhstan controls Xinjiang, this wouldn't affect this market. It must be the state that today is based in Taipei.

2y

@MP my bad, I completely misunderstood

predicts NO 2y

@MP so excluding Kinmen?

2y

@JoshuaWilkes yes

2y

China will collapse but the successor governments will "annex" plenty.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEightโ€™s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (๐•Š) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.

Related questions