Conditional on AGI being available by 2045, will Eliezer Yudkowsky be declared enemy #1 by the AI during the first 60 days?
Conditional on AGI being available by 2045, will Eliezer Yudkowsky be declared enemy #1 by the AI during the first 60 days?
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If by 2045 we have artificial general intelligence, this market resolves to YES if in the 60 days after that Eliezer Yudkowsky is non-ironically declared the enemy #1 by the AI.
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No, because regardless of what Eliezer says about the AI, I don't expect him to hold any sizeable power before 2045.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with
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Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
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By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
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As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
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