When will the first reputable AI-lab go public via a SPAC?
Mini
6
แน752026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
14%
H1'2024
14%
H2'2024
14%
H1'2025
14%
H2'2025
44%
No AI-lab goes public via a SPAC in '24 or '25
To define what a reputable AI-lab, it'll need to have some requirements:
A foundational language model comparable to the ChatGPT free model
I'll rely on Hugging Face and LLMSys benchmarks
In case of continuous controversy, I may rely on a poll of Manifold users
I won't bet. This market resolves at the announcement date.
Labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, Mistral, Cohere, Stability, AI21Labs, would count.
Get แน1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
What will be the top 3 AI labs in 2025?
Which AI will be the first to space? OpenAI?
Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?
7% chance
In the next 12 months will the tech IPO markets unthaw and we see at least one major listing for an AI focused company?
7% chance
Will a Generative AI (LLM) startup IPO before EOY 2025?
37% chance
Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public?
17% chance
Will OpenAI IPO before the end of 2025?
6% chance
Which AI tech companies will be acquired for more than $1B in 2025? ๐ฐ
When will the first AGI company get nationalized?
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?