Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public? | Manifold

Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public?

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12

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2030

17%

chance

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xAI is an AI company started by Elon Musk with the goal of creating AI that aids humanity in understanding the universe. If and only if xAI releases a publicly accessible artificial general intelligence, defined as a machine that exceeds the average human in all cognitive tasks, before anyone else does this question resolve true.

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Would you be fine with extending the resoltution? Like it’s a few years out surely

@TheBayesian The resolution date was a mistake. How can I fix this?

predicts NO

I hadnt done it before but i went on my market and i think this works, on mobile at least:

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Will xAI open source Grok 2 before April?

Which company will be the first to develop, announce, and allow the public to freely interact with “true” AGI?

Will AI create the first AGI?

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

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When will AGI be developed and released to the public?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Will X be merged into xAI in 2025?

Will X/Elon Musk achieve AGI by next year?

Will xAI join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?