Will AI create the first AGI?
Plus
4
áš3002035
41%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES iff: AGI is created before 2035 according to this question:
https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd
And a publicly known system (at the time of resolution) created before the first publicly known AGI (at the time of resolution) is able to write the full code base of an AGI, without introducing any new human knowledge to it.
Get áš1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will humans create AGI, either directly or indirectly, within the next 24 months?
16% chance
Will China get AGI first?
26% chance
What organization will be the first to create AGI?
Will Elon Musk create the first AGI by 2030?
5% chance
Which company will create AGI first?
Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?
Will the first AGI be capable of love?
55% chance
Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public?
10% chance
Will AGI be a problem before non-G AI?
20% chance
Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025?
5% chance