Will it cost $30 to train a GPT-3 level model in 2030?
Plus
19
Ṁ13712031
19%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Ark's prediction proves correct, this market resolves to YES. I'll leave the definitions open, relying in experts (I hope my GF is a PhD in ML by then), but both press releases and opinion of experts, including the specialized press, will count to this market.
I won't bet.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will a GPT-3 quality model be trained for under $10.000 by 2030?
83% chance
Will a GPT-3 quality model be trained for under $1,000 by 2030?
82% chance
Will a GPT-4 quality model be trained for under $10.000 by 2030?
86% chance
Will $10,000 worth of AI hardware be able to train a GPT-3 equivalent model in under 1 hour, by EOY 2027?
16% chance
Before 2028, will anyone train a GPT-4-level model in a minute?
27% chance
Will a model be trained using at least as much compute as GPT-3 using AMD GPUs before Jan 1 2026?
84% chance
Will a model costing >$30M be intentionally trained to be more mechanistically interpretable by end of 2027? (see desc)
60% chance
Will a model as great as GPT-5 be available to the public in 2025?
99% chance
Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-3 this decade? (1k subsidy)
58% chance
AI: Will someone train a $1T model by 2030?
25% chance