Recent media reports from late May 2025 indicate a significant, though reportedly temporary, disruption to the processing of J-1 visas, which will affect applicants from Latin America.
According to multiple news outlets (including AP News, NPR, and information circulated by institutions like Yale University), the U.S. Department of State has directed U.S. Embassies and Consulates to pause the scheduling of new visa interviews for F, M, and J visa applicants, effective around May 27, 2025.
This suspension of new interview scheduling is to allow for the implementation and expansion of required social media screening and vetting procedures for these visa categories. While officials have stated this pause is temporary, a specific timeline for the resumption of new interview scheduling has not yet been announced.
Implications for J-1 Student Visa Applicants (including those from Latin America):
No New Interviews Being Scheduled: Individuals who have not yet scheduled their J-1 visa interview are currently unable to do so.
Existing Appointments Expected to Proceed: Those who already had visa interviews scheduled are reportedly not affected by this pause and should plan to attend their appointments.
Increased Scrutiny: The expansion of social media vetting suggests that even when interviews resume, applicants may face more intensive screening processes. This could contribute to longer processing times or new complexities in the application.
Uncertainty on "Normal" Processing: This development moves J-1 visa issuance further from what might be considered "normal" procedure. The "and what not" in visa processing now potentially includes more comprehensive social media checks. Earlier in February 2025, eligibility for visa interview waivers was also narrowed, increasing the number of applicants requiring interviews.
This market asks whether the U.S. will return to "normally" issuing J-1 student visas for Latinos by 2026. "Normally" would imply a state where applicants can reliably schedule interviews in a timely manner and undergo a predictable application process. The current pause, coupled with the impending new vetting measures, casts uncertainty on when such a state will resume.
Will these new procedures be smoothly integrated and interview scheduling capacity be restored to normal levels for Latin American J-1 student visa applicants by the end of 2025, allowing for a return to "normal" issuance by 2026? Or will this pause and the new screening requirements lead to sustained disruptions or a "new normal" of more complex and lengthy visa processing?
Update 2025-06-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified their approach to resolution:
Reliance will be placed on mainstream media reports.
If visa processing is reinstated, an absence of evidence in mainstream media indicating major, widespread problems (such as reports of high rejection rates or severe processing delays for a large percentage of applicants) will be considered a factor towards a YES resolution.
https://www.newsweek.com/student-visa-changes-limits-trump-administration-proposal-2112820 The new term limits rule has been approved by the White House, further changing and disrupting the J-1 (and F-1) visa process for students. With this policy change being continually prioritized by the Trump administration, it is very unlikely that it will take 5 months to be implemented, or that it will be withdrawn before EOY. This is separate from the social media and country-specific lines of argument.
NAFSA considers us to be in a more challenging new normal with a gigantic 30-40% decline in new international student enrollment based on their most recent model: https://www.nafsa.org/about/about-nafsa/us-economy-could-suffer-7-billion-loss-precipitous-drop-international-students
The article is referring to the loss in international student arrivals due to the previously existing 1 month or so pause of F/M/J visas, that's already factored in. Of course, the US will receive fewer overall arrivals over the course of this year and fewer enrollments for the academic term beginning this fall because of that delay. But that doesn't affect whether the US will eventually go back to scheduling visa interviews by the end of 2026, which it already has.
Times are reportedly back to normal for most nations for J1 visas already. There is some additional processing time due to social media scrutiny, but so far there is no evidence of any other major procedural changes or that this social media screening will affect the vast majority of J1s. Importantly, the length of this processing time has been predictable, capped at around 2 weeks, meaning that even if it adds significant time to the process, the overall new process should still be predictable and timely.
@spiderduckpig F-1 issuance was only down 12-22% in recent months, but overall internationals were down 30-40%, meaning J-1s were down substantially more than that, for the whole year, based only on the one month delay? I don’t think the numbers support this moderate disruption to the norm, I think they show a new norm.
@Panfilo The NAFSA article doesn't have the most clear wording to me but it seems that the 12 and 22% figures are for April and May, reflecting a decline in enrollments probably in anticipation of future issues, and then they note no official figures are given for June, but it's implied that almost all (they say 80-90%) enrollments were postponed in June. So the vast majority of that 30-40% decline is probably due to June. There are also 19 country-specific bans, and with the exception of Venezuela they all appear to be outside of Latin America, if it's defined as Spanish and Portuguese-speaking America.
Additionally, these stats only reflect the situation up to June. Despite the article being posted in July, they don't really comment on any developments since the visa ban was lifted and resumption of interviews, and it's probable there's no official data out on it yet.
@spiderduckpig They also have a restriction on Cuba, so that would be two major Latin American countries restricted even if the numbers deferred from June bounce back as you expect. I’m certainly not betting lower until we see more recent numbers!
@Panfilo You're right, I missed Cuba, though due to the unique nature of the US-Cuba immigration relationship the total number of Cuban international students is almost negligible. Venezuela has about 40 times more international students in the US than Cuba.
"According to the Institute of International Education, just 114 students from Cuba were enrolled in U.S. colleges and universities in the 2021-22 school year, comprising a tiny share of the overall 949,000 international students in the United States."
https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/cuban-immigrants-united-states-2021
https://cis.org/Immigration-Studies/RecordBreaking-1582808-Foreign-Students-2024
@spiderduckpig there is a reason I bet it down to 41% and not like 11%; I think the rebound will not make up for the loss and it will be obvious that there is a lasting chilling effect from policy changes, but my credence of that is only like 80% and my credence that the creator will agree is also about 80%, plus a few points of Venezuela counting by itself re: LA restricted.
@MP Some J-1 visa appointment scheduling is resuming, with extra scrutiny for applicants' social media. Would this qualify as a resumption?
@spiderduckpig @MP My interpretation of the detailed description is that if the new scrutiny or any other changes create a "new normal" that is notably more challenging or time-consuming, that would be enough for a No (assuming it continues through the end of the year).
@Panfilo That's a much lower/different bar than what's written in the description?
any other changes create a "new normal" that is notably more challenging or time-consuming
vs.
"Normally" would imply a state where applicants can reliably schedule interviews in a timely manner and undergo a predictable application process...
Will these new procedures be smoothly integrated and interview scheduling capacity be restored to normal levels for Latin American J-1 student visa applicants by the end of 2025, allowing for a return to "normal" issuance by 2026?
Any social media vetting would obviously make the process more "challenging" for the applicants. But this is not a question about whether there are any new barriers in the process that weren't there before. The description refers to people's ability to schedule their interviews & have them processed in a reasonably "timely manner" (as defined by ~roughly similar enough to the old status quo, which wasn't super convenient to begin with).
and it's not about if the # of student visas issued returns to previous levels—they certainly cannot within 2025, students are on a yearly cycle and the disruption that prompted question creation has already occurred. this question refers to the capacity for interview scheduling & processing (if things are back to normal in december, the disruption in june doesn't matter).
it's certainly possible that social media screening will complicate the process enough that the system can't keep up and it becomes much more difficult to schedule your interview (or it takes forever to be processed), I'd assume that motivated the question. but the existence of social media screening as an additional barrier for the applicant does not directly tell you anything about how well the system can keep up with processing applicants.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen I'll rely on the mainstream media, and the absence of evidence (say they reinstate and no media outlet runs a story saying they are fucking 70% of applicants).
@MP What if major media outlets don't run a big story, but immigrant/student-centered youtube channels and other focused media all continue to affirm that there is a new normal and a failure to cleanse your social media will screw you over?