As of September 14th, 538's election forecast predicts that Kamala Harris is more likely than Donald Trump to win the 2024 election while Nate Silver's election forecast predicts that Trump is more likely to win.

This question will resolve YES if Trump leads Kamala in both of these probabilistic forecasts on any single day after September 14th and before Sunday, September 29th, 2024 (Eastern Time).

This question otherwise resolves NO after both models have been updated for each date before the 29th. Ties do not count as a lead.

Resolution will not include any lead due to a bugs/mistake which is corrected by the next day's updates. Any potential YES resolution will wait for the next day's updates in both models. If both models still show Trump as having been in the lead on the previous day, this question resolves YES.

If there are deliberate changes to either model which update the forecast for a previous day in the resolution range (such as a change to a model's convention bounce adjustment) this can count for this question's resolution. Resolution will wait for the next day's model updates after any such change to ensure it was not a glitch which is corrected.

The addition of alternative forecasts, such as a "polls-plus" or "nowcast" forecast by either site, will not count for this question's resolution.

In the event that either or both forecasts are indefinitely unavailable on September 29th such as when they were suspended after Joe Biden dropped out of the race, this question will resolve to NO by default.