Which country will be the first new EU member?
Which country will be the first new EU member?
Plus
25
Ṁ27272035
1D
1W
1M
ALL
1.1%
Turkey
78%
Montenegro
40%
North Macedonia
29%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
12%
Serbia
11%
Albania
7%
Georgia
7%
Moldova
5%
Ukraine
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What if multiple countries enter on the same date?
And will this actually expire at the end of 2024?
@aok I think both will resolve yes if added in the same date.
@MarcoPolo please let us know what you mean:
Which country will be added first in 2024? If none, all resolve No at the end of 2024.
Or just the first to be added and you extend the market to 2050 for example.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
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