This market assesses the likelihood that JD Vance will play a meaningful role in helping individuals associated with rationalist blogging, 𝕏, or similar intellectual communities attain formal influence within high levels of U.S. government or policy-making circles by 2028.

Terms for the Market

1. Notable Integration:

Integration requires rationalist bloggers to gain substantial influence in official roles, formal advisory capacities, or have recognized policy impact facilitated by JD Vance’s direct involvement or endorsement. Casual acknowledgments or public discussions do not meet this threshold.

2. Qualifying Political Figure:

This term centers specifically on JD Vance to examine whether he actively brings rationalist bloggers or prominent figures from the rationalist community into government or high-level advisory positions.

3. Qualifying Rationalist Bloggers:

Rationalist bloggers include individuals widely recognized within rationalist or effective altruism circles, such as those associated with platforms like LessWrong or who are influential in the broader online rationalist community.

4. Verification of Influence:

Influence must be verifiable through credible news coverage, official government appointments, public policy acknowledgments, or public statements crediting JD Vance’s role in promoting these rationalist bloggers’ influence within D.C. or policy-making institutions.

5. Timeline:

The term runs from 2024 through 2028, with the outcome assessed based on events that occur within this period.

Market Options

• Yes: JD Vance will integrate rationalist bloggers into significant D.C. influence by 2028.

• No: JD Vance will not facilitate the integration of rationalist bloggers into significant D.C. influence by 2028.

• Partial Influence: There will be some documented interactions between JD Vance and rationalist bloggers, but these interactions will not meet the criteria for formal influence as defined above.