Resolves YES if Trump announces he's firing Jerome Powell as Fed chair, or otherwise makes an attempt to fire Powell before his term ends in May of 2026. Resolves NO if he makes no public attempt before then. This market is not contingent on whether the attempt is successful.
In the edge case where Powell resigns without Trump attempting to fire him, this market will N/A.
Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A public announcement of Powell's imminent removal is enough to resolve this YES even if Trump does not take any further action.
@BenM I think it could be. Calling on him to resign wouldn't count, but something to the tune of "I will be firing him this week!" without him doing anything further should be enough to resolve Yes. I don't know if something like "i will be firing him if he does not cut rates this month!" should count or not, though.