NOTE: this is the percentage of the recipients, not of the total federal workforce!
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1884374441456476408?s=46&t=AGFfmV2uDlPAeG-1asCMHw
I will go by the most widely publicized number found by the time the question closes, or extend it if we learn there is an official deadline for the offer that is longer out.
Update 2025-01-29 (PST): - If there is a published number of people that sent the “resign” reply, the question resolves to that percentage, whether or not the resignations stick. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator:
Scenario A: If the official deadline ends before the current close date (Feb 27), the market will resolve to the officially announced percentage retroactive to that deadline (even if published later).
Scenario B: If the deadline is delayed beyond Feb 27, the market will close on Feb 27 and resolve using the most broadly publicized unofficial number from well-known media sources as of that date.
Scenario C: If scenario A occurs but then a clear second round starts before market close, that additional round is out of scope and the resolution remains as described in Scenario A.
CNN reports 75,000 have taken the offer: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/12/politics/scores-of-firings-federal-agencies
@mndrix https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-judge-allows-trump-proceed-with-government-employee-buyout-2025-02-12/ reuters corroborates this as well, with, a detail that I didn't see in the CNN article, that the program is now closed. So the additional numbers should flatten out over the next few days as a final tally is made.
unless it opens up again lol which... i guess you never know
@JimAusman I will try to find a more official denominator at close, but yes, for trading purposes that should be sufficiently accurate for the ranges available.
@traders the article linked here (h/t @No_uh) is reporting 2.3M as the denom and 75K as the numerator (as of this moment).
I will wait for a couple more days for either a) (ideally) an official press release from OPM or POTUS (check https://x.com/usopm
Or b) several articles corroborating ( hopefully more precise) numbers like these to be published in other highly-esteemed news sites.
https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1888203878484844992?t=vGcppAuBEgYi4lYDw-yYjQ&s=19 the number continues to rise. Can you answer @ChristopherRandles 's question please @MattCWilson ?
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-government-workers-face-buyout-deadline-trump-presses-ahead-with-overhaul-2025-02-06/ Reuters has reported 60,000 have accepted it.
@No_uh @ChristopherRandles @traders great question.
Here are my thoughts - at the time I made the market, I wanted to leave room for things to “settle out” which is why I didn’t set the resolution date for Feb 7-9 or whatever.
I wasn’t exactly anticipating a delay of the deadline, but imo it falls under the sort of “hazy lawyering” I was expecting would delay us getting an “official” number.
That said, I don’t intend to drag this market out indefinitely either; not especially now that unofficial counts are rolling in.
So:
A) if the deadline officially ends prior to the current close date of Feb 27, the market will close then, and resolve to the percentage that is the officially announced number retroactive to the deadline date (even if that doesn’t come out till early march)
B) if the deadline gets delayed again, beyond the Feb 27 close, the market will close, and I will go with the most broadly publicized and purported unofficial number available as of that date (Feb 27) - using well-known media sources.
C) if it’s A, but then there is clearly a “second round” that starts before market close, then that’s out of scope, and we remain in case A.
Hope that helps! Thank you for the question! Sorry to keep you in suspense!
@MattCWilson No need to say sorry! Thanks so much for saying very clearly what you'll do. I appreciate it a lot. And it makes clear sense.
I wasn't sure because, as you said, I expected the close date was in order for things to "settle out", but I didn't know if any of us expected this to get drawn out in the manner it has. Thanks so much!
https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2025/02/06/deadline-for-trumps-federal-buyout-offer-extended-by-court-as-over-40000-staff-agree-to-leave-heres-what-to-know/
>40000 which is over 2% of 2 million so the <1% can resolve no and >=1% can resolve yes?
"The Trump administration is offering this "deferred resignation" to nearly all full-time federal employees, with the exception of military personnel, employees of the U.S. Postal Service, those in positions related to immigration enforcement and national security, and those in any other positions specifically excluded by agency leadership."
https://www.npr.org/2025/01/28/nx-s1-5278604/federal-workers-resign-september-telework