Will a successful human brain uploading technology be developed before January 1st, 2040?
10
Ṁ561
2040
10%
chance

This question aims to determine whether a technology capable of scanning a human brain at a neural or sub-neural level and implementing the same algorithmic structures on a computer in a manner that preserves memory and personality will be developed before 2040.

Resolution criteria:

This question will resolve to "YES" if, before January 1st, 2040, a human brain uploading technology is publicly and credibly documented to have:

  1. Scanned a human brain at a neural or sub-neural level, capturing a minimum of 90% of its synapses, neurons, and glial cells, as well as their interconnections and relevant molecular details.

  2. Implemented the captured neural data into a computer system or simulation, recreating the algorithmic structures responsible for memory, cognition, and personality of the original brain.

  3. Demonstrated the preservation of the uploaded individual's memory and personality by:

    1. Accurately recalling and describing at least 10 specific autobiographical memories, verified by independent sources familiar with the individual.

    2. Exhibiting behavioral patterns, decision-making abilities, and emotional responses consistent with the individual's pre-upload personality, as assessed by a panel of at least three qualified experts in psychology or neuroscience.

  4. Successfully passed a series of cognitive and behavioral tests, including but not limited to memory recall, problem-solving, and emotional response, showing no more than a 5% deviation from the individual's pre-upload performance.

A successful demonstration must be accompanied by:

  1. A publicly accessible report or documentation describing the brain uploading technology, its scanning methodology, computer implementation, and evaluation process.

  2. Independent validation of the results by at least two separate entities with expertise in neuroscience, computational neuroscience, or related fields. These entities can be research groups, institutions, or companies.

  3. Video or photographic evidence of the brain scanning process, the computer implementation, and the cognitive and behavioral tests performed on the uploaded individual.

I will use my discretion when resolving this question, possibly in consultation with experts.

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