Will a human brain be uploaded by 2100? | Manifold

Will a human brain be uploaded by 2100?

45

Ṁ2558

2100

55%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Uploading: scanning the structure of a brain in sufficient resolution and using it as input to a simulation which results in consciousness similar to the original brain.

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I made a similar market with the intention on being more in-depth that works in 3 year intervals. https://manifold.markets/ThePhilosopher/will-uploaded-intelligence-human-br?r=VGhlUGhpbG9zb3BoZXI

Define similar.

predicts NO

@capybara refer to the dictionary

Human whole brain emulation before 2100?

53% chance. This market resolves Yes if, by the beginning of 2100, at least 1 person has used whole brain emulation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading) successfully (defined arbitrarily by >75% consensus of philosophers of mind that psychological continuity and identity is preserved).

Sorry for the replicate

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Will a successful human brain uploading technology be developed before January 1st, 2040?

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Conditional on no AGI, will a human brain be uploaded before 2053?