Trump promised to commute the prison sentence of Ross Ulbricht at the Libertarian National Convention yesterday: https://x.com/Bubblebathgirl/status/1794543794664452571
Ulbricht was sentenced to life in prison for founding "Silk Road", which enabled drugs sales on the dark web.
If elected, will Trump in fact commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, at any point during his term?
If Trump is not elected president, this market resolves to N/A. The market is conditional on Trump winning.
Eh, I'd say it's still negative EV overall, for me. Hard to judge such minuscule quantities accurately though - an individual vote (especially in a relatively uncompetitive district) is worth so close to zero that the time investment to calculate with it becomes a nontrivial portion of the value calculation.
Yes, in a non-swing state your vote really makes no difference and is about as important as responding to a Manifold poll. (*Regarding the Presidency. Local races may still be important.)
Would this market be allowed to resolve N/A if Trump were not elected @ManifoldPolitics , seeing that there is a stance on markets to not resolve N/A?
@ScipioFabius We haven't formalized a new policy on this yet so my position is that Maxim Lott can do whatever he wants.