Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2025?
Plus
48
Ṁ6096Dec 31
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Same as https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/are-we-about-to-hit-another-ai-wint?r=TWF4aW1lUmljaGU but about the year 2025.
Quote: """
Inspired by https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/smells-a-little-bit-like-ai-winter
Resolves extremely subjectively, based on whether it seems to me at the end of 2024 like AI progress has stalled and people have gotten much less interested in it.
"""
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be an AI Winter by the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?
28% chance
Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2026?
16% chance
What AI safety incidents will occur in 2025?
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2026?
8% chance
Will an AI winter happen by 2030?
27% chance
Will there be an AI Winter between 2022 and 2026?
16% chance
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2028?
42% chance
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?
69% chance
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
33% chance