Resolves YES if, during his planned US trip, Putin makes any sort of joke on topic of Russia getting back Alaska. Resolves N/A if there won’t be a meeting on US soil before the end of this month.
I won’t bet on this market.
How does it resolves if he doesn't joke about getting it back, but mentions that it was part of Russia in some joking context? E.g. "see, that's Russian spirit still living here" as a reaction to something happening. That doesn't seem unlikely, and I can imagine it being unclear how to resolve the market.
@StepanBakhmarin I think this fictive case is a pretty clear NO resolution, or am i missing something?
@StepanBakhmarin thank you for your question, I’m quite busy rn but I’ll answer to you a bit later 👍 (also in the meantime will think of a more profound answer than just “that’s not really a joke so that’s a NO”)
@StepanBakhmarin I’m sorry for a 3-day delay…so, the short version of my answer to your question is: I agree with what was written above that this exact case you’ve brought up would be much closer to a No than to a Yes.
The longer version is: like, as I understand, most people here agree on a number of facts about Putin, including that he is 1) A bully, 2) Loves expanding Russia (especially if the territory in question used to be Russia at some point), and 3) It’s in his blood to f**k with US. He’s also has some record of a weird sense of humor. So, the question that I think seems kind of interesting right now - given all that, will he hesitate from starting cracking jokes about how nice it would be to get Alaska back, or not?
This market seems quite ambiguous, I agree on that…well, I plan to do my best when it will be a time for resolving, including probably having some discussion in the comments. Also I guess it might be logical to resolve this market “to a %” eventually, though I’m not sure that this information is of much importance to traders…
Hope that makes sense! 🤷