Will there be a space elevator before 2060? Earth or Lunar
Will there be a space elevator before 2060? Earth or Lunar
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Will there be a space elevator attached to either the Earth or the Moon by 2060? It doesn’t need to support a heavy payload, but it needs to be a continuous structure from the surface of the Earth to beyond geostationary orbit. In the case of a lunar space elevator it needs to attach to the lunar surface and extend beyond the L1 Lagrange point between the Moon and the Earth.
Note the tensile strength requirements for a lunar space elevator are less than a terrestrial space elevator.
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I did some rough math. The Earth space elevator needs something like carbon nanotubes while the lunar space elevator is at the limits of what carbon fiber can do. This is with slim to no factor of safety.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
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