Will the Democrats gain 38+ seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 US midterm elections?
27
Ṁ4516
2026
18%
chance

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if Democrats gain a net total of 38 or more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections as measured by the Associated Press. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

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From what baseline? Do you know how the AP usually measures it?