
Will any single terrorist attack in a Western nation kill more than 20,000 people before 2030?
Plus
18
Ṁ23232030
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
List of WEIRD countries for the purposes of this market:
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
France
Greece
Germany
Iceland
Italy
Latvia
Luxembourg
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
United States
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
This is a very serious and sensitive question. While it's impossible to predict the future accurately, we hope that security measures and international cooperation will help mitigate the risk of large-scale attacks. We should focus on building a safer society for everyone at my location
Terrorist attack are brutal and should not happen at any cost. Don't want to bet on anything. Damage would be far worse.
car painting Dubai
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a terrorist attack deadlier than 9/11 before 2035
34% chance
Will there be a terrorist attack deadlier than October 7th before 2030
44% chance
[Metaculus] Will a terrorist attack in Sweden cause at least one death before 2031?
91% chance
Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2025?
41% chance
Will there be a drone terror attack that kills at least 1 person in the United States before 2026?
42% chance
Will an eco-terrorism act causing a significant loss of life (10+) occur before 2035?
57% chance
Will there be a terrorist attack motivated by climate change before 2030?
79% chance
Will any terrorist group detonate a nuclear weapon before 2035?
10% chance
Will more than ten "national level" politicians in any single western country be killed within twelve months of each other before 2030?
15% chance
Will a nuclear bomb be used in a terrorist attack before 2035?
21% chance