According to Levels.fyi's 2022 end of year pay report, salaries for all tech jobs have been decreasing steadily from 2021 through the end of 2022. Will this trend buckle by 2027 or hold steady?
Resolves N/A if they do not publish such a report. If the report does not include a category for "software engineer" this market may resolve N/A unless a reasonable estimation can be gleaned from it.
This market has been heavily subsidized.
One potential Yes scenario: coding LLMs allow non-technical people to build software, and the increased supply of people who can build software is larger than the induced demand from greater productivity.
This might be a better measure for how well software engineers are doing:
Will the software engineer's salaries/ per capita GDP ratio be lower in 2026 than in 2022, per Levels.fyi? | Manifold Markets
Automation raises the productivity of the individual worker, so their real salaries should go up (and nominal salaries go up even more). Industry figures out out ways to use the increased capacity so all those coders won't have to learn to journalist.
@toms I made a similar one with inflation adjustment. (And it's one year shorter)
Will software engineer's real salaries be lower in 2025 than they were in 2022, per Levels.fyi? (Inflation adjusted!) | Manifold Markets