SpaceXpectations 2024: Which of these missions will happen on schedule?
22
แน€9035
Jan 1
82%
NASA Crew-9 in Q3
1%
Axiom Mission 4 in Q3
85%
Europa Clipper in Q4
1%
Griffin Mission 1 in Q4
Resolved
YES
Axiom Mission 3 in Q1
Resolved
YES
Intuitive Machines Mission 1 in Q1
Resolved
YES
NASA Crew-8 in Q1
Resolved
YES
Starship IFT-3 in Q1
Resolved
YES
GOES-U in Q2
Resolved
NO
Polaris Dawn in Q2

The article https://chrisprophet.substack.com/p/spacexpectations-2024 predicts which quarter of the year a number of upcoming SpaceX missions will launch in. Which of these predictions are accurate, and which missions will slip to the right?

Options resolve YES if that mission launches in or before the given quarter, NO if the given quarter ends without the mission launching. "Launch" is defined for this market as the rocket going above the launch tower under its own power.

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bought แน€25 Europa Clipper in Q4 YES
NASA Crew-9 in Q3
bought แน€10 NASA Crew-9 in Q3 NO

I'd say it will still but happen in Q3 but it now wouldn't take much more in further delays to push it back to Q4

Europa clipper has some reported issues that might cause a slip. https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/07/nasas-flagship-mission-to-europa-has-a-problem-vulnerability-to-radiation/

bought แน€552 GOES-U in Q2 YES

GOES-U launched just now

bought แน€654 Polaris Dawn in Q2 NO

Polaris Dawn NET July 12.

GOES-U delayed to June 25 https://www.teslarati.com/the-falcon-heavy-launch-of-the-goes-u-satellite-delayed/

Q1 is a sweep for YES!

DPboughtแน€150Intuitive Machines M... YES

@dp9000 Also, damn you for just beating me to it haha

DPboughtแน€80NASA Crew-8 in Q1 YES

[Linked to wrong trade oops]

Intuitive Machines Mission 1 in Q1

Can resolve yes

Axiom Mission 3 in Q1

Resolves YES

Axiom mission 3 livestream is scheduled https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nXlbgjIoP4

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