Will a Republican congressperson be identified as a white nationalist by 2030?
Will a Republican congressperson be identified as a white nationalist by 2030?
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Ṁ3582030
71%
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This market resolves YES if a current Republican member of the US congress is identified as a white nationalist before 2030. This market resolves NO if that does not happen.
Identifying someone as a white nationalist would involve them attending (in person, remotely, or asychronously through video or audio) or speaking at an event intended for white nationalists AND having this be credibly reported on. To avoid controversy, I will use this archived list from wikipedia. As a result, Rep. Greene and Rep. Gosar's attendance at the American First Political Action Committee does not qualify, while former Rep. King's attendance at an American Renaissance conference does qualify. (Note: this question was inspired by former Rep. Steve King's history of racism.)
Because this is surely controversial issue, I will not bet on this market either way.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
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Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.Get started for free! No credit card required.
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By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
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