The prediction
Space Capital, a venture capital firm that manages over $150M in assets primarily in the space industry, recently made the prediction that Boeing and Airbus would both divest their space divisions in 2025.
Background
Both Boeing and Airbus maintain significant space divisions as part of their aerospace operations.
Airbus Defence and Space is currently undergoing restructuring (announced late last year), including plans to cut over 1,000 jobs from their space systems division by mid-2026 to improve efficiency and competitiveness.
Boeing's space division, primarily operating through Boeing Defense, Space & Security (BDS), remains a core part of their business portfolio but has been suffering significant losses from the Starliner program and is seen to be struggling to maintain pace with the rest of the space sector.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if both of the following occur by EOY 2025:
Boeing announces and completes the sale, spinoff, or other form of divestment of its primary space operations
Airbus announces and completes the sale, spinoff, or other form of divestment of its primary space operations
Partial divestments or restructurings that maintain majority ownership will not count as divestments. The divestment must involve the primary space operations of each company, not just subsidiary units or minority stakes.
Given that major aerospace divestments don't happen overnight, I may resolve NO early if there hasn't been sufficient movement towards divestments by Q4 or so
I won't participate in this market in case the resolution is ambiguous
(Trialling a mostly AI generated description, open to feedback and questions)
Update 2025-10-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator plans to resolve NO in ~24 hours (from comment timestamp) unless traders provide evidence of movements towards divestment that the creator has missed.
@traders I haven't seen any movements towards either divesting their space divisions, is anyone aware of any relevant news that I've missed?
If no one provides any evidence, I'll resolve NO in ~24hrs
@Nat you said you may resolve in Q4. It is now Q4. I see no signs that this is happening. Are you prepared to resolve no?
If so, I'd appreciate the opportunity to buy this down as a reward for following up on an older market <3.
@MRME yeah I'd be exceedingly surprised at this point if either let alone both divested by EOY, that said for due diligence's sake I'll give a day in case any traders want to provide any counter evidence that I might have missed (I'll ping them in a sec to give you a chance to buy down first 😉)