
Neural Nets will be better at typical manual labour tasks than humans by the end of 2025
Plus
24
Ṁ1470Dec 31
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Set criteria:
Move boxes better
Can build houses better
Can hold manufacturing positions
Can load a dishwasher in an unfamiliar kitchen faster
Inspired by tweet thread (note I've put them all as "Neural Nets will" so that they are all framed the same):


Link: https://twitter.com/RichardMCNgo/status/1640568776495353860?s=20
Mar 28, 11:24pm: Neural Nets will be better at typical manual labour tasks by the end of 2025 → Neural Nets will be better at typical manual labour tasks than humans by the end of 2025
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Neural Nets will generate more scientific breakthroughs than humans by the end of 2025, including novel theorems
6% chance
Neural Nets will be able to write bestselling novels by the end of 2025
19% chance
Neural Nets will beat any human on computer tasks a typical white-collar worker can do in 10 minutes by the end of 2025.
23% chance
Neural Nets will be able to robustly pursue a plan over multiple days better than the best human by the end of 2025
15% chance
Neural Nets will have human-level situational awareness by the end of 2025.
65% chance
Neural nets will out-perform researchers on peer review by end of 2025.
67% chance
Neural Nets will be able to design, code and distribute whole apps by the end of 2025.
30% chance
Neural Nets will generate at least 1 scientific breakthrough or novel theorem by the end of 2025
38% chance
Neural Nets will write award-winning short stories and publishable 50k-word books by the end of 2025
15% chance
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
16% chance